Australia: New barley crop exports forecast at 3.8 mln tonnes

Australia’s new-crop barley exports have been forecast at 3.8 million tonnes, up from 3.2 mln tonnes in 2019-20, according to the July report from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Canberra posting.

The report forecasts new-crop Australian barley production at 9.8 mln tonnes, 200,000 tonnes below the latest average of Australian industry estimates.

Australia’s overall feed consumption of grain is expected to fall as the Australian beef industry enters a period of herd rebuilding, and increased pasture production has reduced the need for on-farm grain feeding.

The May announcement by the Chinese Government that a five-year, 80.5 per cent, tariff was to be imposed on Australian barley was seen as forcing barley prices down, but did not cause a major change in new-crop area because it came at the tail end of the planting window.

In light of the impact the Chinese tariff is expected to have on exports of malting barley, some growers in areas with adequate in-crop rainfall may opt to forego trying to achieve malting grade and instead try to maximise yields by applying nitrogen.

Domestic consumption of barley is forecast to increase slightly in 2020-21 to 5.6 mln tonnes from 5.5 mln tonnes in 2019-20.

Food, seed, and industrial consumption is forecast to remain steady, with malt production also expected to be relatively stable.

Livestock feed consumption, however, is forecast to be strong as the tariffs by China will likely result in barley continuing to displace wheat in feeding.

Over the past five years, around 40pc of Australian barley exports to China have been malting barley.

Japan is Australia’s second-largest barley export market, and in years with big export surpluses, China has imported most of Australia’s excess feed barley.

The industry is working towards seeking alternate markets due to the expected decline in barley demand from China.

Some potential markets for feed barley are in the Middle East, although there are fewer options for malting barley. China accounted for 88 percent of Australia’s malting barley exports in recent years, which will create future challenges for the industry.

Australia’s barley stocks are forecast to increase in 2020-21 to 2.6 mln tonnes from 2.2 mln tonnes in 2019-20.

This is due to the forecast larger crop and export market challenges caused by the China tariff on Australian barley.

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